Waymo | Nelson Law, LLC https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com Law of Motion Mon, 03 Feb 2025 19:23:14 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.1 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Nelson-Law-LLC-Law-of-Motion-Favicon-150x150.png Waymo | Nelson Law, LLC https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com 32 32 Navigating Regulatory Trends in the Mobility Sector https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/navigating-regulatory-trends-in-the-mobility-sector/ Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:44:36 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/11/06/what-were-reading-november-6-2024/ Lyft partners with May Mobility, Mobileye to bring autonomous vehicles to the app

Tech Crunch, November 6, 2024

Elon Musk says its ‘pointless’ to build a human-driven $25,000 Tesla

Fast Company, November 5, 2024

Waymo is now valued at a staggering $45 billion

Electrek, November 1, 2024

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  • Lyft partners with May Mobility, Mobileye to bring autonomous vehicles to the app (Tech Crunch, November 6, 2024)

    Lyft is making a big push into the autonomous vehicle market, partnering with several companies to build a network of self-driving cars. They’ve signed a deal with May Mobility to launch autonomous vehicles on the Lyft app in Atlanta starting in 2025. Lyft is also partnering with Mobileye, allowing vehicles equipped with Mobileye’s self-driving technology to be integrated into the Lyft platform. Additionally, Lyft has partnered with Nexar to use dashcam data to improve autonomous vehicle technology development. These partnerships build on Lyft’s previous experiences with autonomous vehicles, including its collaboration with Motional and Argo AI. This strategy aims to help Lyft catch up with Uber, which has already partnered with several companies in the autonomous vehicle industry.

  • Elon Musk says its ‘pointless’ to build a human-driven $25,000 Tesla (Fast Company, November 5, 2024)

    During an earnings call last month, Elon Musk indicated that Tesla has backed out of its plans for the long-promised $25,000 electric vehicle, stating that building an affording electric vehicle is “pointless” without fully autonomous technology. As recently as January of 2024, Musk confirmed rumors of Tesla’s new affordable EV arriving in 2025, and called it the beginning of a “growth wave” for the company.

    However, Tesla appears to be shifting focus to autonomous technology and producing its robotaxi, the “Cybercab.” “It is my understanding that the original plan was to make the more-affordable vehicle on a new platform. I think Tesla realized they were late to making an affordable vehicle versus their Chinese-EV peers. . . So, they changed their strategy rather than make a large investment to produce a new vehicle,” stated Seth Goldstein, a Morningstar Research Services analyst.

  • Waymo is now valued at a staggering $45 billion (Electrek, November 1, 2024)

    Alphabet’s Waymo received $5. 6 billion in funding, now valued at $45 billion. With investors like Google, it plans to expand robotaxi service in major cities. Despite setbacks, financial support from Alphabet fuels Waymo’s success. The company is growing rapidly, with plans to enter new markets and expand autonomous operations. Existing investors include Andreessen Horowitz and T. Rowe Price. Tesla poses potential competition in the self-driving sector.  Currently, Tesla offers ride-hailing services with safety drivers for its Bay Area employees.

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Advancing Risk Strategies for Emerging Technologies https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/advancing-risk-strategies-for-emerging-technologies/ Wed, 09 Oct 2024 19:46:00 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/10/09/what-were-reading-october-9-2024/ Toyota pushes back electric vehicle production plans in America

Detroit Free Press, October 7, 2024

Google’s Waymo Chooses Hyundai Ioniq 5 for Autonomous Driving Fleet

MSN, October 6, 2024

Autonomous vehicles could render personal auto insurance obsolete by 2044, new report finds

CBT News, October 4, 2024

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  • Toyota pushes back electric vehicle production plans in America (Detroit Free Press, October 7, 2024)

    Toyota has long been cautious about the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, and the current EV market slowdown seems to validate its skepticism. However, despite the slump, the global auto industry continues to shift toward electrification, and all manufacturers, including Toyota, will ultimately need to adjust – albeit at a slower pace than originally anticipated.

    Though there were reports of Toyota’s three-row EV SUV launching by the end of 2025, production has been delayed until at least 2026. Meanwhile, Lexus has canceled its plans for a new electric vehicle as EV sales continue to decline in the U.S. Despite the downturn, Toyota remains committed to producing 1.5 million EVs annually by the end of 2026, with plans to introduce seven new EV models to the U.S. market.

  • Google’s Waymo Chooses Hyundai Ioniq 5 for Autonomous Driving Fleet (MSN, October 6, 2024)

    Hyundai and Waymo partner to integrate autonomous driving technology into Hyundai vehicles, starting with the sixth generation Waymo Driver in the Hyundai Ioniq 5. Vehicles will be produced at Hyundai’s Georgia factory with autonomous pre-installation, ensuring they are ready for self-driving technology. Waymo plans to add the Ioniq 5 to its Waymo One fleet by 2025, expanding its operations in select U. S. regions. This collaboration allows Hyundai to enter the autonomous vehicle sector while growing Waymo’s fleet, previously supplied by Chrysler and Jaguar. The latest Waymo Driver features advanced hardware and software for enhanced detection capabilities in various conditions.

  •  Autonomous vehicles could render personal auto insurance obsolete by 2044, new report finds (CBT News, October 4, 2024)

    A new Morningstar report suggests that self-driving cars might significantly diminish the need for personal auto insurance within 20 years. By 2044, if AVs are widely adopted, liability could shift from drivers to manufacturers, transitioning insurance to product liability. Full adoption of Level 4 or 5 autonomy, where cars drive without human intervention, could make personal insurance obsolete by 2060. Currently, most vehicles have Level 2 automation requiring driver assistance. Companies like Waymo and Cruise are pioneering Level 4 capabilities with region-specific robotaxis. Morningstar projects that AVs could reach 80% market penetration within 7 to 18 years, depending on adoption speed. Insurance may remain unaffected until Level 4 autonomy prevails, but a 10% AV penetration rate by 2035 could begin reshaping the industry, potentially eliminating some insurers by 2043 as AV penetration grows.

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Key Innovations in Mobility and Insurance https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/key-innovations-in-mobility-and-insurance/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/key-innovations-in-mobility-and-insurance/#respond Wed, 12 Jun 2024 19:04:25 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/06/12/what-were-reading-june-12-2024/ Waymo issues software and mapping recall after robotaxi crashes into a telephone pole

The Verge, June 12, 2024

Tesla’s DMV self-driving false advertising case must go to trial, CA judge rules

Fox Business, June 11, 2024

EV slump, Hertz fire sale take used Teslas to ‘no haggle’ $25,000 price

CNBC, June 10, 2024

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  • Waymo issues software and mapping recall after robotaxi crashes into a telephone pole (The Verge, June 12, 2024)

    Waymo issued its second ever recall after one of its robotaxis collided with a telephone pole in Phoenix, Arizona last month. Waymo issued the voluntary recall with NHTSA after the carmaker released a software update to all vehicles in its driverless fleet. The software update changed the error that “assigned a low damage score” to the telephone pole and updated its map for the area. “We have already deployed mapping and software updates across our entire fleet, and this does not impact our current operations,” stated Waymo spokesperson Katherine Barna. “As we serve more riders in more cities, we will continue our safety first approach, working to each trust with our riders, community members, regulators, and policymakers.”

    The vehicle suffered some damage after hitting the telephone poll at 8 mph, but no passengers or pedestrians were injured in the incident.

  • Tesla’s DMV self-driving false advertising case must go to trial, CA judge rules (Fox Business, June 11, 2024)

    Tesla has made headlines this week as Judge Juliet Cox has denied the company’s attempt to dismiss a lawsuit filed by the California DMV. The lawsuit accuses Tesla of falsely advertising its vehicles’ self-driving capabilities. Tesla has promoted its cars by claiming that Autopilot is an “advanced driver assistance system” and that Full Self-Driving (FSD) can “drive itself almost anywhere with minimal driver attention.” If Tesla is found liable, it could face a suspension of its license to sell vehicles in California and may have to provide restitution to Tesla owners residing in the state.

  • EV slump, Hertz fire sale take used Teslas to ‘no haggle’ $25,000 price (CNBC, June 10, 2024)

    Hertz is offloading 20,000 electric vehicles (EVs) after it acquired approximately 100,000 Teslas to expand its electric fleet in 2021. To facilitate the sale of these EVs, which make up one-third of its EV inventory, Hertz has announced a no-haggle pricing strategy with average prices around $25,000. Although EV sales have more than quadrupled from 2020 to 2023, the growth rate has decelerated as automakers are currently shifting their focus to hybrid vehicles.

    Used Hertz Certified EVs undergo a comprehensive 115-point inspection and come with a 12-month/12,000-mile limited powertrain warranty. Additionally, Hertz offers extended warranty options, trade-ins, financing, and the ability to rent the car for a few hours or up to three days, with the rental fee waived if the car is purchased. For those preferring online transactions, Hertz provides the option to buy cars online and even delivers the vehicle for an additional fee.

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Exploring Legal Trends in Emerging Automotive Tech https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/exploring-legal-trends-in-emerging-automotive-tech/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/exploring-legal-trends-in-emerging-automotive-tech/#respond Wed, 29 May 2024 14:23:00 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/05/29/what-were-reading-may-29-2024/ Toyota shows ‘an engine reborn’ with green fuel despite global push for battery electric cars

AP News, May 28, 2024

Major robotaxi firms face federal safety investigations after crashes

The Washington Post, May 24, 2024

Hyundai Motor and Plus Announce Collaboration to Demonstrate First Level 4 Autonomous Fuel Cell Electric Truck in the U.S.

Morningstar, May 22, 2024

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  • Toyota shows ‘an engine reborn’ with green fuel despite global push for battery electric cars (AP News, May 28, 2024)

    While many manufacturers in the auto industry are pushing for electric vehicles, Toyota has announced “an engine reborn,” at a Tokyo hall on Tuesday, offering compact engines that run on green fuels, like hydrogen and bioethanol. In hybrids, Toyota plans for the electric motor to become the main driving force, with the new “reborn” engine to take a lesser role. 

    Toyota’s Chief Executive Koji Sato stated that the “engine is optimized for the electrification era,” with goals to meet emissions standards and to push for “carbon neutrality” globally. Officials for the Japanese automaker have repeatedly stated that a complete shift to electric vehicles is not economically possible due to the millions of jobs in vehicle production at stake. “The carbon neutrality the world is aspiring toward isn’t likely attainable for decades to come. It’s going to be a long marathon race,” stated business professor at Waseda University, Takahiro Fujimoto.

  • Major robotaxi firms face federal safety investigations after crashes (The Washington Post, May 24, 2024)

    The self-driving vehicle industry faces increased scrutiny as federal investigations into Amazon’s Zoox, Google’s Waymo, and GM’s Cruise highlight potential flaws linked to numerous collisions. NHTSA is probing incidents involving rear-end collisions with Zoox vehicles, erratic behavior by Waymo robotaxis, and an ongoing investigation into Cruise after a pedestrian accident in San Francisco. Despite the industry’s rapid expansion, with around 40 companies testing autonomous vehicles in California and significant investments aiming to revolutionize transportation, these incidents challenge claims of superior safety compared to human drivers.

    Matthew Wansley, an expert on automotive technologies, notes that the period of unrealistic expectations is over, with companies under increased scrutiny. This scrutiny comes as NHTSA uses crash data to identify potential safety risks in autonomous driving technologies. As incidents involving self-driving cars accumulate, the NHTSA faces growing pressure to preemptively regulate rather than react post-incident.

  • Hyundai Motor and Plus Announce Collaboration to Demonstrate First Level 4 Autonomous Fuel Cell Electric Truck in the U.S. (Morningstar, May 22, 2024)

    Hyundai Motor and autonomous driving software leader Plus have debuted the first Level 4 autonomous Class 8 hydrogen fuel cell electric truck in the U.S. at the ACT Expo. This collaboration aims to enhance road safety and freight efficiency. The truck, a Hyundai XCIENT Fuel Cell model, is equipped with Plus’s Level 4 SuperDrive™ system and is undergoing initial autonomous driving assessments in the U.S. By integrating Plus’s advanced autonomous driving technology, Hyundai seeks to provide safer, more efficient, and sustainable solutions in trucking. The XCIENT Fuel Cell truck has already proven its reliability in real-world applications across eight countries since its introduction in 2020.

    “We are thrilled to collaborate with Hyundai Motor Company on this important initiative to create more sustainable and safe transportation options. A decarbonized future with autonomous hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks that also improve safety and efficiency is one that Plus is proud to support with our cutting-edge autonomous driving technology,” said Shawn Kerrigan, COO and Co-Founder at Plus.

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The Intersection of Technology, Data, and Mobility https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/the-intersection-of-technology-data-and-mobility/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/the-intersection-of-technology-data-and-mobility/#respond Wed, 15 May 2024 20:33:00 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/05/15/what-were-reading-may-15-2024/ Waymo Is Latest Company Under Investigation for Autonomous or Partially Automated Technology

US News, May 14, 2024

GM’s self-driving car unit restarts testing on public roads

CNN, May 13, 2024

Tesla Rehires North America Charging Director, Report

EV, May 13, 2024

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  • Waymo Is Latest Company Under Investigation for Autonomous or Partially Automated Technology (US News, May 14, 2024)

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened another investigation into Waymo’s self-driving vehicles after 22 reports of crashes or traffic law violations. This has become the fourth investigation into automated driving technology announced by NHTSA within the past month, joining Amazon’s Zoox, Ford, and Tesla.

    NHTSA announced it would be investigating the 22 Waymo incidents “to more closely assess any commonalities in these incidents.” The federal agency will be evaluating the automated driving system’s performance in responding to traffic control devices and crash avoidance with both stationary and moving objects and vehicles.

    “Ultimately, I think it’s a good thing [NHTSA is] taking these steps, trying to figure out why these vehicles are acting the way they are,” said Michael Brooks, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety.

  • GM’s self-driving car unit restarts testing on public roads (CNN, May 13, 2024)

    After shutting down last October due to an accident involving a pedestrian, Cruise robotaxis are hitting the roads again.  The self-driving vehicles will begin testing in Phoenix and will have a safety driver at the wheel of the modified Chevrolet Bolt EV ready to take over if needed.    As you may recall, Cruise was forced to halt operations last fall after the California Department of Motor Vehicles suspended Cruise’s permits to operate vehicles in the state.  Cruise then made the decision to stop all operations nationwide.  Since then, “Cruise said it has updated its software to better respond to such incidents in the future”.  

  •  Tesla Rehires North America Charging Director, Report (EV, May 13, 2024)

    Tesla has taken steps to rehire some of the approximately 500 members of its Supercharging team who were laid off in April, including Max de Zegher, former director of charging for North America. De Zegher, along with Rebecca Tinucci, a senior director, was part of the management let go by Elon Musk during the restructuring. De Zegher initially joined Tesla in 2013 as a Product Specialist in London and later became a Project Manager for Charging Infrastructure in the Northeast & Canada. Recently, Musk also announced plans to invest over $500 million in expanding the Supercharger network by adding thousands of new chargers in 2024. The exact number of rehired employees is currently unclear. Tesla reassured Australian customers via email that Supercharging services will be expanded and ongoing construction sites will be completed.

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What We’re Reading https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-february-21-2024/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-february-21-2024/#respond Wed, 21 Feb 2024 20:20:22 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/02/21/what-were-reading-february-21-2024/ Activists gather in Chinatown to demand immediate ban on self-driving taxis in California

The San Francisco Standard, February 19, 2024

Carmakers pumped the brakes on hybrid cars too soon

Vox, February 14, 2024

Elon Musk claims fatal crash was not on ‘Full Self-Driving Beta’ after Tesla said logs were lost

Electrek, February 14, 2024

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  • Activists gather in Chinatown to demand immediate ban on self-driving taxis in California (The San Francisco Standard, February 19, 2024)

    An activist group in California called the Network for Safety in Our Streets & for Working People is calling for Governor Newsom to ban self-driving taxis after a Waymo robotaxi was set ablaze following two recent robotaxi incidents that occurred in San Francisco: first, when a Cruise vehicle hit and dragged a pedestrian, and more recently when a Waymo robotaxi struck a cyclist. The group believes that robotaxis are endangering public safety, and that they should all be removed from the streets of San Francisco. “We demand that Governor Newsom remove all Waymo self-driving taxis from the streets of San Francisco and California immediately,” said Edward Escobar, a coalition organizer, in a statement on Sunday.

    According to the California Department of Motor Vehicles, self-driving vehicles have been involved in over 2,000 collisions in California alone since 2014, most of which were reported by Waymo and Cruise.  Mark Gruberg, a board member of the San Francisco Taxi Workers Alliance, stated, “We don’t run into fire trucks. We don’t drive into wet concrete. We don’t run over people and then drag them for 20 feet…So the [California Utilities Commission] really has to get its act together.”

  • Carmakers pumped the brakes on hybrid cars too soon (Vox, February 14, 2024)

    As barriers to adoption of electric vehicles continue to mount, the hybrid vehicle space, which was left for dead in the not-too-distant past, seems to be making a formidable comeback. Despite proposed rules by the EPA aimed at reducing reliance on carbon-spewing vehicles, drivers still seem to be reluctant to give up gasoline entirely due to factors such as range anxiety, reliability, and charging infrastructure. As a possible short-term compromise, hybrid cars— models that blend electric and gasoline power —are experiencing a bit of a renaissance.

    “The number of hybrid model offerings declined in 2023, but sales increased significantly across existing models,” according to the Energy Information Administration. In fact, new car purchasers are now buying around as many hybrid cars as fully electric vehicles, and demand is growing. Whether the return to hybrids will serve as a bridge to greater electrification or merely slow ultimate transition remains to be seen.

  • Elon Musk claims fatal crash was not on ‘Full Self-Driving Beta’ after Tesla said logs were lost (Electrek, February 14, 2024)

    In response to an article in The Washington Post earlier this week regarding a fatal accident involving a Tesla employee in 2022, Elon Musk is claiming that the involved Tesla was not on “Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta” when the accident occurred. Although the Tesla employee was legally intoxicated at the time of the accident, subsequent investigation revealed that the Tesla may have been using FSD at the time of the accident. Investigating authorities, however, were unable to recover data from the vehicle due to fire damage, and Tesla said it could not confirm that FSD had been in use because it “did not receive data over-the-air for this incident.”

    Musk is now publicly claiming that the Tesla was not even equipped with FSD, notwithstanding reports to NHTSA that “a driver-assistance feature had been in use at least 30 seconds before impact.” It will be interesting to find out why, if true, this information did not surface until now. 

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What We’re Reading https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-february-14-2024/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-february-14-2024/#respond Wed, 14 Feb 2024 19:23:11 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/02/14/what-were-reading-february-14-2024/ EV battery giants BYD, CATL form Chinese powerhouse to build solid-state batteries

Electrek, February 12, 2024

Waymo recalls and update robotaxi software after two cars crashed into the same towed truck

Tech Crunch, February 13, 2024

AV restrictions bill reintroduced in California

Trucking Dive, February 13, 2024

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  • EV battery giants BYD, CATL form Chinese powerhouse to build solid-state batteries (Electrek, February 12, 2024)

    Who will win the race to commercialize all-solid-state EV batteries?  China, if they have anything to say about it.  Several leading Chinese automakers and battery manufacturers are joining forces to commercialize solid-state batteries, which could revolutionize the EV market.  The government led, China All-Solid-State Battery Collaborative Innovation Platform (CASIP), was formed last month and includes academia and industry leaders like BYD, Contemporary Amperex Technology, and NIO.  BYD and CATL already make up over 50% of the global EV battery market and are used by Tesla, BMW, Toyota, Kia, Ford, and other leading EV makers.  China sees this new alliance as a way of ensuring they will become an “automotive powerhouse.”

  • Waymo recalls and update robotaxi software after two cars crashed into the same towed truck (Tech Crunch, February 13, 2024)

    Self-driving vehicles continue to face ongoing scrutiny with the latest news of Waymo issuing its very first recall after two of the carmaker’s robotaxis crashed into a towed pickup truck in Arizona this past December. According to Waymo, the pickup truck was improperly towed, “angled across a center turn lane and a traffic lane,” which resulted in the robotaxis being unable to correctly predict the motion of the vehicle.  While the crashes were considered “minor” with no injuries,according to Mauricio Peña, Waymo’s chief safety officer, the company has developed and tested a software update that was deployed to its entire fleet by January 12.

    “This voluntary recall reflects how seriously we take our responsibility to safely deploy our technology and to transparently communicate with the public,” Peña wrote in a blog post.

  • AV restrictions bill reintroduced in California (Trucking Dive, February 13, 2024)

    The ongoing battle between labor and autonomous tech in California witnessed another salvo last week when California legislators reintroduced a bill seeking to give state legislators more oversight over the AV sector.  Specifically, the bill aims to shift the responsibility for keeping safety operators onboard autonomous heavy-duty trucks to politicians, rather than state regulators. The proposed law is aligned with another Teamsters-supported bill, which seeks to require the passage of local ordinances before autonomous vehicles are allowed to operate.  “California must implement real AV safety standards and ensure local municipalities have a say in AV deployment,” said Peter Finn, president of Teamsters Joint Council 7.

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What We’re Reading https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-february-7-2024/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-february-7-2024/#respond Wed, 07 Feb 2024 20:47:00 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2024/02/07/what-were-reading-february-7-2024/ Elon Musk has to recall nearly every Tesla sold in the U.S. because some warning lights are too small

Fortune, February 2, 2024

A Waymo robotaxi hit a cyclist in San Francisco – here’s what happened

Electrek, February 7, 2024

GM to cut spending by $1 billion on robotaxi unit Cruise in 2024

Reuters, January 30, 2024

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  • Elon Musk has to recall nearly every Tesla sold in the U.S. because some warning lights are too small (Fortune, February 2, 2024)

    In yet another sign of stepped-up scrutiny, NHTSA announced a recall of nearly all of the 2.2 million vehicles Tesla has sold in the U.S. because some warning lights on the instrument panel have a smaller font size than required by federal safety standards. The agency also announced that it has upgraded a 2023 investigation into Tesla steering concerns to an engineering analysis, which is the procedural step prior to an actual recall. Tesla has already started releasing software updates to address the warning light issue, and owners will be notified by letter starting March 30.

    NHTSA maintains that the added controls and alerts will “further encourage the driver to adhere to their continuous driving responsibility.” Safety experts, however, remain skeptical that Tesla’s over-the-air updates are sufficient to address the underlying problems associated with Tesla’s Autopilot and driver monitoring systems.

  • A Waymo robotaxi hit a cyclist in San Francisco – here’s what happened (Electrek, February 7, 2024)

    Yesterday, February 6, a Waymo robotaxi hit a cyclist after the autonomous vehicle did not see the cyclist behind a large truck at an intersection in San Francisco. Immediately following the accident, the robotaxi company contacted the police. Luckily the cyclist sustained only minor injuries and was able to leave the scene of the accident on their own without any medical treatment.

    This incident comes after Waymo announced its plans to expand its driverless robotaxi services in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Austin. While the situation was handled in a “counter-Cruise fashion,” the accident is still a setback for Waymo, who has already been getting pushack for its expansion into Los Angeles by labor organizations and Teamsters. Waymo may face some hardships moving forward distancing itself from the Cruise accident, even with the significantly smaller-scale incident.

  • GM to cut spending by $1 billion on robotaxi unit Cruise in 2024 (Reuters, January 30, 2024)

    Dominoes continue to fall in the wake of the Oct. 2 accident involving a Cruise robotaxi. After disclosing probes last week by the U.S. Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission, GM announced that it is cutting spending for the troubled self-driving unit by approximately $1 billion in 2024.

    GM CEO Mary Barra stated that the automaker will “refocus and relaunch Cruise,” and would announce a specific timetable for the relaunch of operations shortly. Despite more than $8 billion in losses on robotaxi operations, Barra added that going forward Cruise will continue striving to make self-driving safer than human operation after learning the hard way that “humans expect computers to be much more safe” than human drivers.

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Who Will Win the Vehicle Autonomy Wars? https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/who-will-win-the-vehicle-autonomy-wars/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/who-will-win-the-vehicle-autonomy-wars/#respond Fri, 01 Dec 2023 14:25:00 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2023/12/01/who-will-win-the-vehicle-autonomy-wars/ As widely publicized, numerous automakers and technology companies have sunk exorbitant amounts of money into the race to commercially scale self-driving vehicles. Although there has been significant progress over the past few decades, the final stage of the journey toward truly hands-free driving is proving to be quite the challenge, with many paths being pursued to achieve the ultimate goal of full autonomy.

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As widely publicized, numerous automakers and technology companies have sunk exorbitant amounts of money into the race to commercially scale self-driving vehicles.  Although there has been significant progress over the past few decades, the final stage of the journey toward truly hands-free driving is proving to be quite the challenge, with many paths being pursued to achieve the ultimate goal of full autonomy.

Despite the rapidly changing landscape as new technologies emerge, the race to autonomous driving has essentially become a two-horse contest between companies focused on the gradual evolution of technology stacks from Level 2 autonomy to full self-driving and companies focused on immediate Level 4 and 5 technology stacks.

As to the first category of competitors, OEM’s such as Tesla and technology companies such as Mobileye are currently leading the way in pursuing Level 2 “plus” autonomous driving systems with the goal of gradually integrating more advanced autonomous capabilities into consumer vehicles.  By offering beta-testing of driver assistance systems on a progressive basis for an upfront fee or subscription, these companies have uniquely been able to create revenue streams that enable them to subsidize the colossal costs associated with developing commercially viable “fully” autonomous driving systems.  This financial bridge allows for the transition of autonomous content and continued rollout of next level applications without worrying about burn rates and lack of new funding sources.   

On the other end of the spectrum are companies who are attempting to develop Level 4 and 5 vehicles or “robotaxis” from scratch through billion-dollar capital investments in autonomous technology, such as Cruise, Waymo, AutoX, DiDi, Pony.ai, Zoox, Aurora, Motional, and Optimus Ride (acquired by Magna). Although there was great exuberance that this perpetually unprofitable space was close to achieving commercial viability, a growing body of real-world data has recently provided a more sobering assessment.

In the aftermath of the widely publicized Oct. 2 crash in San Francisco where a driverless car ran over a pedestrian, Cruise suspended all U.S. operations, announced significant cutbacks in resource allocations and saw top executives resign.  Additionally, there have been numerous reports of robotaxis blocking streets, failing to properly recognize emergency vehicles or emergency scenes, or simply freezing indecisively in intersections or roundabouts.

Although solving complex urban driving scenarios in a scalable way has long been the holy grail for the AV industry, these recent controversies have inevitably raised questions as to whether current driverless technology is ready for wide scale deployment in major American cities.  In fact, Argo AI, which had received billions in funding from Ford and Volkswagen, shut down and completely abandoned its autonomy pursuit earlier this year.  Despite these headwinds, the remaining robotaxi companies and mobility providers are publicly staying committed to realizing a future of safe autonomous mobility, even if may take more time than initially anticipated.

So, who will win the race to commercially viable self-driving?  The answer seems to lie in what sector will be able to generate sustainable revenue while the technology continues to develop and emerge.  Despite promises that the dream of driverless vehicles is just around the corner, the reality is that it will likely be at least 10 years before the technology is ready for full-scale deployment.  According to Jeremy Carlson, Associate Director for the autonomy practice at S&P Global Mobility, “Level 5 Autonomy, which refers to a vehicle that can mimic human driving abilities in any environment, is unlikely to be available to the public before 2035 and perhaps even later.”  Most industry experts agree that autonomous vehicle technology will be limited for the foreseeable future to geofenced robotaxis operated by fleets in predefined zones and hands-off systems with driver monitoring devices in personal vehicles that will still necessitate driver involvement.

The real challenge is that vehicle autonomy cannot be scaled until current safety margins or MTBF (Mean-Time-Between Failure) rates, which measure the average time a system can operate without a failure, surpass that of human drivers.  Existing technology stacks simply have not reached this safety threshold and additional progress in this regard is proving to be sticker than expected.  At present, Level 4 and 5 companies are still facing billion-dollar investment needs to accomplish this goal.  Given astronomical burn rates and a potential 10-year runway to achieve success, the future does not look extremely positive for any company that has not figured out how to offset development costs with revenue streams.

Thus, it appears that companies like Tesla and Mobileye, who are transitioning autonomous content gradually with built-in revenue streams from existing ADAS, clearly have a leg up on the rest of the field.  In fact, the only viable solution to sustainability challenges may be to build existing markets for partial autonomy that can fund the roll-out of more sophisticated systems on a revenue-driven timetable.

As more and more industry experts are acknowledging that the race to full autonomy is a marathon rather than a sprint, automakers and technology companies are beginning to shift resources to the business models pioneered by the likes of Tesla and Mobileye.  The inescapable reality appears to be that reaching optimal levels of vehicle autonomy will require substantially more time and exorbitant additional investment.  Unfortunately, these are not luxuries that non-revenue generating Level 4 and 5 ventures can afford, at least not as currently structured.

Given the life altering benefits vehicle autonomy will eventually provide and the enormous profits that will be realized by first movers in the industry, we have no doubt that the vehicle autonomy wars will continue to be interesting and heated.  Although the safe bet currently appears to be companies systematically transitioning from partial to full autonomy, the fascinating part of this race is that technological breakthroughs can quickly change race standings at any given moment.

Copyright Nelson Law LLC

The opinions expressed in this blog are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Firm, its clients, or any of its or their respective affiliates. This blog post is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.

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What We’re Reading https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-september-27-2023/ https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/what-were-reading-september-27-2023/#respond Wed, 27 Sep 2023 17:33:00 +0000 https://nelson.sparkandsouldesign.com/2023/09/27/what-were-reading-september-27-2023/ S&P predicts AVs need at least 10 more years to hit widespread adoption

Repairer Driven News, September 26, 2023

California governor vetoes bill banning robotrucks without safety drivers

Reuters, September 23, 2023

Nancy Pelosi Wants Cruise and Waymo To Turn Over Safety Data

The San Francisco Standard, September 19, 2023

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  • S&P predicts AVs need at least 10 more years to hit widespread adoption (Repairer Driven News, September 26, 2023)

    A new S&P Global Mobility forecast predicts autonomous vehicles won’t hit the mainstream market for widespread adoption until at least a decade from now.”

    In a report released just this past Monday, S&P predicts that autonomous technology will be limited in the near term to geofenced robotaxis and hands-off systems that still require driver engagement. True Level 5 technology likely will not be widely available until at least 2035, given the extreme difficulty developers face in combining “ADAS and sensors with the necessary predictive software and engineering in unsupervised vehicles to operate safely.” Widespread deployment of automated systems (i.e., Level 2+ and 3) is likely to occur more quickly, with S&P predicting that such systems will be available in 31% of new cars sold globally by 2035.

  • California governor vetoes bill banning robotrucks without safety drivers (Reuters, September 23, 2023)

    Not surprisingly based on prior leaks from his office, California Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed labor-backed Assembly Bill 316, which requires a human driver in all autonomous vehicles weighing over 10,001 pounds on California roadways.

    Considering … the existing regulatory framework that presently and sufficiently governs this particular technology, this bill is not needed at this time,” Newsom said in a veto message last week.

    The veto of the bill, which passed easily in both houses of the state legislature, appears to be a huge win in the ongoing battle between autonomous technology stakeholders and labor groups seeking to protect human trucking jobs. Although the veto can be overturned by a two-thirds majority vote in each house, such a legislative override has not happened in California since 1979.

    This latest development appears to pave the way for the department of motor vehicles to independently develop a regulatory framework for autonomous trucks, which industry insiders anticipate will encourage rather than hinder future development. Governor Newsom added in his veto message that these planned regulations are the best way to transparently address safety and job issues, with input from stakeholders and experts.

  • Nancy Pelosi Wants Cruise and Waymo To Turn Over Safety Data (The San Francisco Standard, September 19, 2023)

    Representative Nancy Pelosi believes “serious safety concerns” warrant an investigation into the operation of Cruise and Waymo robotaxis in San Francisco, and is calling for NHTSA to collect more detailed data from the AV pioneers. Pelosi’s request, joined by fellow California Representative Kevin Mullin, appears motivated by recent reports of robotaxis interfering with emergency responses in the city. In their letter to NHTSA, the two legislators “urged the federal agency to collect data that could be used to draw conclusions on the ‘broader safety’ of autonomous vehicles, such as information on vehicle retrieval events, emergency response interference and lane blockages.”

    Waymo and Cruise both responded to the letter with statements underscoring their reporting compliance and safety statistics. NHTSA also issued a statement acknowledging receipt of the letter and its intent to review it.

    In the meantime, local debate over robotaxis continues in San Francisco as the City Attorney has requested a rehearing at the California Public Utilities Commission to reconsider the commission’s approval in August to allow Cruise and Waymo to operate 24/7 and charge passenger fares throughout the city.

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